« Fairey v. Associated Press: Yes He Can | Main | Audio/Video: Fault in Contract Law »

February 11, 2009

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c031153ef01053720ae14970b

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Israeli Election: How Winning Can Backfire:

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Noam

If a windfall allows me, when combined with my initial wealth, to make an investment that ‎subsequently ‎turns sour, would it be appropriate to say that the windfall had “backfired”? I think not, ‎and the case of ‎the Israeli elections appears to be analogous.‎

Plurality winner or not, Kadima could have either conceded the elections (leading to a more centrist ‎Netanyahu government) or claimed victory for itself, giving up the benefits associated with such a government for the opportunity to participate in a gamble in which a Livni government is the outcome ‎of success and a right-wing Netanyahu government is the outcome of failure. The plurality victory ‎increased the probability of success, presumably enough to make the lottery option attractive. If ‎Kadima’s leaders now gamble and lose, they may in hindsight regret the electoral victory which made ‎the lottery option attractive. I would have similarly regretted the windfall ‎that made my investment ‎possible. In both cases, however, it would be more appropriate to “blame” the bad decision to gamble ‎or the bad luck that followed than to claim that the win(dfall) had “backfired”.‎

Kadima’s plurality victory would actually backfire if Likud’s preference for being the largest coalition ‎‎party outweighed its preference for a centrist coalition. If that were the case, Kadima would be ‎‎offered a place in a Likud-led coalition only if it received fewer votes than Likud. But this is rather ‎‎trivial: it is hardly surprising that “winning” may “backfire” when “losing” comes with its own special ‎prize.‎

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.